The Future of the United States of America on the World Stage

[Cuba]

Tom nice post, do you know what data are used in creating that chart? Are those just FY07 growth figures used in perpetuity?

 

[buzzard breath]

As an actual American, living within my means, I find it ironic to be on the receiving end of as pseudo-economic lecture with a conclusion telling me to change my attitude and change how I live in my own country. Isn't this the pot calling the kettle black. For evidence of my attitude change I am offered vague, glossed over predictions of a China superpower. So what is the different attitude? Should the american attitude change help us compete with this "ultra-power" in which case you contradict yourself (does US always need to be in the top spot?) or do you wish our new attitude to be give-up. With very few exceptions, all the americans I know are very honest, hard working, conscientious and self-motived people. This, combined with competition, is the engine of our economy and the economy of american households. We'll be fine thank you. If you want to prompt change, send your recommendations to our politicians, like I do. We are not victims of our politicians, they're routinely voted out of office for bad ideas and poor performance. Caution should be exercised when giving unsolicited advise to members of this forum based on their nationality, american or otherwise.

 

[Cuba]

As an actual American, living within my means, I find it ironic to be on the receiving end of as pseudo-economic lecture with a conclusion telling me to change my arttitude and change how I live in my own country. Isn't this the pot calling the kettle black. For evidence of my attitude change I am offered vague, glossed over predictions of a China superpower. So what is the different attitude? Should the american attitude change help us compete with this \"ultra-power\" in which case you contradict yourself (does US always need to be in the top spot?) or do you wish our new attitude to be give-up. With very few exceptions, all the americans I know are very honest, hard working, conscientious and self-motived people. This, combined with competition, is the engine of our economy and the economy of american households. We'll be fine thank you. If you want to prompt change, send your recommendations to our politicians, like I do. We are not victims of our politicians, they're routinely voted out of office for bad ideas and poor performance. Caution should be exercised when giving unsolicited advise to members of this forum based on their nationality, american or otherwise.

Personal responsibility??? Very refreshing sir.

 

[jmerch44]

Actually China has the largest military on the planet and enough nuclear weapons to eliminate human existence, so I wouldn't agree that this is \"minimal\" on the threat scale. Quit watching Red Dawn! I know it's good but has no place in real discussions!!

If anyone on the planet with a nuke uses it, the whole world ends. they wont use it for the same reason we wont use it. but i guess I'll take your world for it since your the smartest person in the world and you determine what a real discussion is, sorry my lord.:ban:

 

[tom5796]

Tom nice post, do you know what data are used in creating that chart? Are those just FY07 growth figures used in perpetuity?

Thanks. The data is not linear, nor compound annual growth. There is some more science behind it including city migration forecasts, income/wealth per capita (and their associated spending), higher education rates, etc. Unfortunately I don't have all of the levers and knobs.

What many folks don't realize is that while much of China's growth thus far has been export, the huge incremental opportunity for them is domestic business as the population's disposable income rises.

 

[tom5796]

As an actual American, living within my means, I find it ironic to be on the receiving end of as pseudo-economic lecture with a conclusion telling me to change my attitude and change how I live in my own country.

I think he was using broad strokes, thinking of all the folks now in foreclosure or default on loans they shouldn't have taken, bailouts of industries that have made unwise decisions (on their own part, or due to government pressure, or union - backed up by the government - pressure), and an education system riddled with mediocrity and low performance.

For evidence of my attitude change I am offered vague, glossed over predictions of a China superpower.

China will be an economic superpower. See my post.

So what is the different attitude? Should the american attitude change help us compete with this \"ultra-power\" in which case you contradict yourself (does US always need to be in the top spot?) or do you wish our new attitude to be give-up.

I don't think he is saying that we should give up. Just that our priorities may be getting us in trouble. My personal bias is that the country has become a place where the productive are rewarded less than the unproductive (see: bailouts, "progressive", i.e. exponential, tax rates, etc).

With very few exceptions, all the americans I know are very honest, hard working, conscientious and self-motived people. This, combined with competition, is the engine of our economy and the economy of american households. We'll be fine thank you.

Agreed, most Americans are honest and hardworking. The problem is that the incentive system is all wrong. Why bust your butt getting a college degree when you can work as a toll collector in Mass for $70K a year, full benies and full pension when you hit 55?

If you want to prompt change, send your recommendations to our politicians, like I do. We are not victims of our politicians, they're routinely voted out of office for bad ideas and poor performance.

Not where I'm from. My congressperson is Barney Frank (Oscar, that must make you chuckle! ), Ted Kennedy has been office forever, and John Kerry has been a fixture around here since he came back from Vietnam. I don't know if it's made national news yet but we seem to have a political figure arrested for corruption about once a week in these parts. The sorry thing is that next election cycle they'll win again. Frustrating as hell.

I'd run for office but I can't afford it.

 

[cv_rider]

Good point. However, although we may have a much, much higher PERCENTAGE of educated workers than China, in terms of absolute numbers (and density), we're gonna get swamped by both China and India.

Every day I get requests from 2-3 post-docs in China to work in my lab (a post-doc is typically someone with a PhD who is looking for work experience before seeking an academic job). The numbers are staggering. Some of these guys have earned 4 or 5 degrees in an attempt to get ahead.

To put it into content, per captia Canada is far ahead of the U.S. in college graduates, but the numbers just aren't there for them to be a world player (other than at curling and hockey of course!)

Here's the solution to the issue that a lot of Chinese want to study in the US, and this has been proposed by many luminaries: when a foreign student earns a PhD in the US, they automatically get a green card to work here. The race to economic success will depend on who has the smartest people. Let's steal them from the Chinese! These smart people still want to live in the US, but we don't let them. The more smart people there are here, the more high-paying jobs they will get, the more taxes they will pay, the more they will increase our competitiveness, the more they will start their own companies that are successful that hire local people and create wealth. Living in the Bay Area, you see this day in and day out. Whenever I see a Chinese driving a BMW 750iL (which is often), the correct thought is "I'm glad that guy is paying taxes and contributing to my country."

 

[tom5796]

Here's the solution to the issue that a lot of Chinese want to study in the US, and this has been proposed by many luminaries: when a foreign student earns a PhD in the US, they automatically get a green card to work here. The race to economic success will depend on who has the smartest people. Let's steal them from the Chinese! These smart people still want to live in the US, but we don't let them. The more smart people there are here, the more high-paying jobs they will get, the more taxes they will pay, the more they will increase our competitiveness, the more they will start their own companies that are successful that hire local people and create wealth. Living in the Bay Area, you see this day in and day out. Whenever I see a Chinese driving a BMW 750iL (which is often), the correct thought is \\"I'm glad that guy is paying taxes and contributing to my country.\\"

YES! YES! YES! Hell, I think this should be extended to Bachelor's Degrees from accredited schools too.

I've mentioned this in the past but my gf grew up in Japan, came here to go to a Boston area University, went on to get a Master's at Harvard and became an award winning teacher. She even mentored/coached national championship spelling bee kids - the kids you see on ESPN. All on an H1-B visa. When she decided to switch careers and go to law school she was in complete jeopardy of being kicked out of the country. The gov was actually considering booting her when evaluating her new student visa. Unbelievable! All this during the summer when one of the hot topics was whether or not strawberry pickers could stay.

The immigration "ideal" was when we needed laborers. Obviously that is not our concern these days, it is intellectual capital. These students should get a green card in their diploma folder. Great work, congratulations and welcome!