New ideas about bike safety

[expatmanxman]

I came across this on FB the other day and it makes a lot of sense so I'm posting on to see if perhaps others might share it, pass it round and see if it gathers momentum. They've looked scientifically at how our brains work, register, process etc and one of the simple things they are trying to do is come up with some very simple triggers in your mind, little rhymes and phrases that make you think. One of the first ones they've come up with is the phrase 'can go, will go' for when another vehicle can possibly move to where you want to be, for instance overtaking if there is a junction or layby on the other side of the road. Out riding yesterday I found myself saying it in my head when I came up behind a car. I am already well aware of this particular risk having lost someone to a drugged up french driver who just turned left as our guy was overtaking alongside a junction but this reduction to a simple phrase that triggers a response to think seems to really hit home. Anyway, here's the link, have a look and if you think it's worth supporting (not financially) tell others about it.

No Surprise – No Accident

 

[Cloggy]

This makes a lot of sense, I had been following it on another site, as [MENTION=13318]The Spin Doctor[/MENTION] has been discussing it on his facebook page as well.

 

[iviyth0s]

Pretty neat, I'll have to read more into this later. I'm liking it already (virtually) and would be interested to applying the ideas on the actual road when the weather comes back

 

[The Spin Doctor]

I came across this on FB the other day and it makes a lot of sense so I'm posting on to see if perhaps others might share it, pass it round and see if it gathers momentum. They've looked scientifically at how our brains work, register, process etc and one of the simple things they are trying to do is come up with some very simple triggers in your mind, little rhymes and phrases that make you think. One of the first ones they've come up with is the phrase 'can go, will go' for when another vehicle can possibly move to where you want to be, for instance overtaking if there is a junction or layby on the other side of the road. Out riding yesterday I found myself saying it in my head when I came up behind a car. I am already well aware of this particular risk having lost someone to a drugged up french driver who just turned left as our guy was overtaking alongside a junction but this reduction to a simple phrase that triggers a response to think seems to really hit home. Anyway, here's the link, have a look and if you think it's worth supporting (not financially) tell others about it.

No Surprise – No Accident

Thanks for the mention!

Our group (myself, Duncan MacKillop who is the chap who brought Motogymkhana to the UK, and air ambulance pilot and founder of Helibikes Alf Gasparro) have all come together from different directions but we all firmly believe that a new direction is needed when it comes to reducing the numbers of crashes that riders have.

We'll be adding to the blog pages regularly as we further develop our ideas!

Keep an eye on it, and it's encouraging to hear that you found yourself saying Cango? Willgo! in your head as you were riding - being aware that something can happen is a key part in being proactive in your riding!

 

[payneib]

Makes sense I suppose. I've learnt a lot this winter about bikers attitudes (especially in the UK) and most could benifit from this thinking. After many encounters with militant biker types on crash videos, I've come to realise that thinking ahead, and predicting the behaviour of other road users, isn't something bikers do naturally (I honestly thought it was). Unfortunately, quite how this would be rolled out in to the general two wheeled population I don't know, when quite frankly, most are incapable of seeing fault with riders actions regardless of evidence.

 

[kenh]

The Article is spot on and I have been driving / riding that way for years. Nearly every accident is preventable if these thought processes are incorporated into our time behind the wheel / handlebars. When approaching a situation on the road one must quickly analyze what everyone is doing and most importantly - what they may do. So when they do it and they will do it, it will be of no surprise and you will find yourself completely relaxed by the potential accident. This has happened many times over the years when I have been driving my family somewhere, my wife usually lets out a scream followed by "he shouldn't have done that!", where I usually respond that I was expecting them (or thought they may) do it.
The real challenge is how to incorporate these thought processes in to the minds of our younger riders / drivers, not having the many years and miles under their belt. Thanks for the Article. :thumbup:

 

[The Spin Doctor]

Makes sense I suppose. I've learnt a lot this winter about bikers attitudes (especially in the UK) and most could benifit from this thinking. After many encounters with militant biker types on crash videos, I've come to realise that thinking ahead, and predicting the behaviour of other road users, isn't something bikers do naturally (I honestly thought it was). Unfortunately, quite how this would be rolled out in to the general two wheeled population I don't know, when quite frankly, most are incapable of seeing fault with riders actions regardless of evidence.

The problem is we're creatures of habit, and our habits tend to narrow down to "what worked yesterday will work today".

Let's try to explain how that works. Here in the UK we have a couple of million motorcycle licence holders. Something under 5000 were killed or seriously injured in 2013. Or, to put it another way, for 1,995,000 there was no incident that caught them out badly enough that they were hurt seriously or killed.

That means it's very difficult to stay focused on staying out of trouble. The longer we ride and the longer nothing happens, the more likely we are to think nothing will happen next time either.

This isn't simply complacency - it's a function of the way our brain processes experience. The more something happens (or doesn't happen) the more our brain will rely on that prior experience. It's made worse by the way we train people to think that avoiding crashes is down to skill - the longer the interval between scary moments, the more they trust their skill and the less they actively anticipate the 'worst case scenario'. That can happen despite the best intentions of the rider (or driver whose been told to 'Think Bike' and continues not to run into one!!) to try to stay safe.

We think the answer is to use simple mnemonics like "Cango? Willgo!" or 'GAPS = TRAPS' to give riders the means to constantly remind themselves of just what can go wrong. We also hope that because these ideas don't blame anyone (either the rider or other road users) but are simple predictions based on observations of the road ahead, we can get to even the difficult to reach, the kind of riders who studiously avoid accepting any responsibility for a crash.

 

[expatmanxman]

So Spin Doctor, now I know who you are, just under a different name.
Good luck with this project.
I was chatting to a Police Motorcycle Instructor the other day about this. I've been out with the coppers a couple of times and what one of them said to me after watching me ride is something that holds true for both them and you. While it's a good thing that I took part in the Bikesafe day, I'm not one of the guys they really really need to see and work with. And they still haven't found a way of attracting the higher priority types they really need. Sadly in the UK (and no doubt elsewhere) there are a significant number of bikers who are just doing it because they are thrill seekers. If they haven't pushed themselves to their limit or beyond they haven't had a good ride. They're not interested in better or safer riding, how to engage with them will be a tricky problem, I hope you solve it.

 

[The Spin Doctor]

Damn, my cover's blown... I'm Spin Doc on several forums, since Visordown and 2001...

I understand what you're saying very clearly because I'm aware of it with my FB page and even more so with my own training - the people who book up a session are a minority, and with a few exceptions almost certainly would already be at the safety-conscious end of the spectrum.

The point we're trying to get over to safety bodies is that no rider intends to crash. Even thrill-seekers don't actually intend to crash and (whisper it) even advanced riders get it wrong, and we crash in the same old places.

We need to tackle the problem top down so we influence safety experts and thus subtly realign training to deal with the personal responsibility angle of crashing, to teach riders how, where and why we crash and what can be done about it, and subtly ditch the myth that if we teach perfect skills, no-one would ever crash.

And to keep the message alive for the people who actually ride bikes, we then need simple appealing messages that are almost subliminal, so that they become part of biking culture via received wisdom. Everybody hears the statement "ride like they're out to kill you". Well, it's not true and it's unhelpful in as much as it turns the roads into an "us and them" battleground, but it's an example of how a simple message can spread so wide to the point that it's accepted without question as a 'truth'. You're right... but we think with 'Cango? Willgo!' and 'Gaps = Traps' we've got at least a couple that we can spread virally.

 

[expatmanxman]

Don't you think this same message should also go to car drivers, when you argue that all accidents can be predicted, that prediction isn't always possible by the biker, the prediction failure can be on the part of the car/van/bus/truck driver and the biker is totally taken by surprise because from their viewpoint there was no evidence to predict an accident was coming up.

 

[payneib]

Don't you think this same message should also go to car drivers, when you argue that all accidents can be predicted, that prediction isn't always possible by the biker

Yeah, this definitely needs to be taught to every road user really. Unfortunately, I can't see anything that will realistically make the roads safer for everyone else, ever making it through parliament, we all know how this stuff works for car drivers compared to bikers in the UK.

As for not all accidents being foreseeable, I find that very hard to believe. I've witnessed some very shocking behaviour on British roads, none of it has actually shocked me though. Every single incident and near miss was entirely predictable.

 

[The Spin Doctor]

Don't you think this same message should also go to car drivers, when you argue that all accidents can be predicted, that prediction isn't always possible by the biker, the prediction failure can be on the part of the car/van/bus/truck driver and the biker is totally taken by surprise because from their viewpoint there was no evidence to predict an accident was coming up.

We have to be realistic. Not every crash can be predicted but it's true that most bike crashes are in entirely predictable locations and the rider and the other road user (if there is one) make entirely predictable errors. There are a few 'Black Swan' events that genuinely are so unlikely they are off the scale but they really are a very tiny proportion.

We've had 60-odd years of 'Think Bike' style safety and we still have crashes at urban junctions. If we could just reduce the chances of being taken out at an urban junction by making the rider more aware of what they can do to avoid a collision, then we're making progress.

 

[dbldutch02]

Maybe I was just really lucky with my instructor(s) but I don't see anything here that wasn't covered while I was learning a year ago. All of it is covered by asking "what if..?" constantly.

Don't wish to rain on anyone's parade, and I'll support anything that helps save lives and limbs, good luck with it, let me know if you ever need inexpert help.

 

[Federico]

As for not all accidents being foreseeable, I find that very hard to believe. I've witnessed some very shocking behaviour on British roads, none of it has actually shocked me though. Every single incident and near miss was entirely predictable.

I was driving through a parking lot at 5mph and someone in a parked car 4 rows over threw their car in drive and floored the gas while simultaneously leaning over behind the dash to retrieve something from the passenger side footwell. It was dusk, they had no lights on, and the first indication I was getting broadsided was the impact itself.

I wasn't polishing my bishop or messing with the radio or using my phone, I was actively scanning the lot for potential traffic conflicts and traveling at a speed conducive to hazard detection and avoidance.

If I believed that collision (not accident, that bitch acted with gross negligence and callous indifference for my life and safety) were predictable, avoidable, or even .001% my fault I would never be able to leave the house again.

 

[payneib]

I wasn't polishing my bishop or messing with the radio or using my phone, I was actively scanning the lot for potential traffic conflicts and traveling at a speed conducive to hazard detection and avoidance.
.

So you were predicting that someone would do something stupid then? I've had similar (in the car this time), turning left at a mini roundabout in town, there's a 4x4 parked on double yellow lines right on my exit, it's dark. I didn't see anyone get in it, I couldn't see anyone in it (smoked windows), no lights on, no indicators, and just like your example, they just pulled out and went for it. But I knew to give it a wide birth. I knew it looked dodgy. My gut said, "they're going to do something stupid", and I've learnt to trust my gut on the road. So that wide birth, gave me enough space to slam on the anchors and lean on the horn, which gave the blind nugget a chance to stop, and reminded them about lights. It's hazard perception.

 

[The Spin Doctor]

Maybe I was just really lucky with my instructor(s) but I don't see anything here that wasn't covered while I was learning a year ago. All of it is covered by asking "what if..?" constantly.

Don't wish to rain on anyone's parade, and I'll support anything that helps save lives and limbs, good luck with it, let me know if you ever need inexpert help.

Sorry for taking so long to get back on this... I don't disagree that "what if...?" is the way to go. I don't know whether you have seen it but the DSA (as was) produced an excellent video of exactly that name back in the mid-90s, featuring Suzy Perry as presenter.

Two problems with "what if...?"

Here's the first. "What if...what?". You have to know exactly 'what' it is that you're looking for, to be able to predict what happens next. We learn by experience. Until something has happened, we're not very good at looking into the future to predict an 'unknowable' event.

Here's the second. We look for things that always happen, rather than things that don't happen. If things don't happen, then... well, we just stop worrying about them. It's human nature and well-documented psychologically.

What's the most common crash on our roads? It's the classic SMIDSY with a car emerging from a side turning. The interesting thing is that it doesn't matter where you look (and I've looked at accident studies from the UK, Europe, USA, Canada, Australia, Thailand, Brazil), it's the commonest accident wherever cars and bikes mingle.

So how come the riders we train at basic level to look out for junction collisions still have the same sort of crashes as Thai riders who take no training and carry three people and a cow on a scooter?

It's because even if we are taught that "cars pull out from side roads" on a training course, after a bit we forget to look for that as a possible event because it hasn't happened yet. In fact, some research by James Oullet (who worked on the Hurt report back in 1981) just a few years back showed that Thai riders were better at avoiding junction collisions than both ordinary US riders and the highly trained California police riders! His explanation was because they have to take evasive action all the time so they see it coming whereas in the west it's a much rarer event and we forget to worry about it and get taken by surprise. It's a very practical example of No Surprise No Accident.

The idea behind our simple rhyming reminders is that people can get into the habit of running them through their head when they what Duncan calls 'the affordance'. That is, the 'gap' that's the potential 'trap' where a car could emerge. And if the car 'cango', then maybe it 'willgo'. So with the rhyming reminders, it's the POTENTIAL for the collision that triggers the mental alertness, not the ACTUAL emerging vehicle.