W
wrightme43
To: Rodger Schultz
Im sure someone has posted this before here - I picked it up from deja-
QUESTION:
What is a rough estimate of the probability that Bill Clinton, since Jan 1984 (15 years), is a co-conspirator in the murders of the 60 persons on a list known to many as the "Clinton Body Count"???
Some have suggested that the suicides and accidents of witnesses, investigators and Clinton's circle of friends and associates were not actually suicides or accidents, but murder. Now if the deaths are average or close to it, then there is no statistical evidence to support this suggestion, nor even that the murders were anything other than coincidental either.
I attempted to figure this out.
WHAT IS THE TOTAL DEATHS PER 100,000 PER YEAR? ANS: 41
The total number of deaths from murder, suicide and accidents is about 41 per 100,000 population per year.
Sources:
Murder (9): http://www.getsafe.com/fbi/ucrpress.html#murder
Accidents, excluding car accidents (19): http://calyx.com/~schaffer/LIBRARY/miscstat.html
Suicides (13): AFSP - American Foundation for Suicide Prevention
Even though the total is 41 per 100,000, I will use the number 50 as a more conservative number and to compensate for any error due to variance from year to year. I have excluded car accidents, since they are very difficult to use as a "murder weapon", since the driver of a "murderer's" car stands a good chance of dying too and a good chance of not even being successful at the attempt. Plus this is not a method of murder listed as measurable in any crime statistics. However, other kinds of accidents and most suicides are relatively easy to "stage", and are frequently reported as murder methods by the police.
HOW MANY PEOPLE FROM 1984 TO 1999 ARE IN BILL CLINTON'S "GROUP"?
This is a difficult question. It is desirable to include as large a number as is reasonable, to include all subpoenaed witnesses against Bill/Hillary Clinton, all government and news/press investigators, personal friends and associates and subordinates to the point they could possibly have damaging evidence against Bill Clinton or testify against him as a witness. In otherwords, if Clinton or a crony of his targeted someone for murder, who would be the people likely to be "targets" in his "group"?
Simple estimates yield, 200 investigators, 500 witnesses, 1000 White House Staff persons, 300 Arkansas Governor's staff, 300 personal friends, 100 close family members, 100 lawyer associates, 1200 Cabinet members and their close staff and assistants, 1000 lawmakers, 1000 FBI agents, 300 Arkansas State Troopers, 1000 close campaign workers, 100 Secret Service. This "generous" list equals 8100.
However, the group was not 8100 in 1984, but has ramped up between then and now. The average then is 4050.
WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT 60 DEATHS ARE NOT COINCIDENTAL, BUT COULD BE DELIBERATELY "CAUSED" BY CLINTON OR ONE OF HIS CRONIES?
The answer is solved, according to a friend of mine who knows statistics, by using the Poison Probability distribution which assumes the events are independent and randomly distributed.
Here are probabilities for 10-50, increments of 5, based on the Poison Probability Distribution and assuming 4000 in his "group".
Number of Deaths Percent Chance Approximate Odds
10 99% 1:1
15 89% 1:1
20 53% 2:1
25 15% 6:1
30 2% 50:1
35 .15% 667:1
40 .0053% 19,000:1
45 .0001% 1,000,000:1
50 .000001% 100,000,000:1
55 .00000001% 10,000,000,000:1
60 .00000000005% 2,000,000,000,000:1
"If it walks like a duck..." - now thats an awful big "duck"
Translation - it is 2,000,000,000,000 times more lethal to be an associate of Mr. Bill than to be an average person.
-MP
Just saying you know.
Im sure someone has posted this before here - I picked it up from deja-
QUESTION:
What is a rough estimate of the probability that Bill Clinton, since Jan 1984 (15 years), is a co-conspirator in the murders of the 60 persons on a list known to many as the "Clinton Body Count"???
Some have suggested that the suicides and accidents of witnesses, investigators and Clinton's circle of friends and associates were not actually suicides or accidents, but murder. Now if the deaths are average or close to it, then there is no statistical evidence to support this suggestion, nor even that the murders were anything other than coincidental either.
I attempted to figure this out.
WHAT IS THE TOTAL DEATHS PER 100,000 PER YEAR? ANS: 41
The total number of deaths from murder, suicide and accidents is about 41 per 100,000 population per year.
Sources:
Murder (9): http://www.getsafe.com/fbi/ucrpress.html#murder
Accidents, excluding car accidents (19): http://calyx.com/~schaffer/LIBRARY/miscstat.html
Suicides (13): AFSP - American Foundation for Suicide Prevention
Even though the total is 41 per 100,000, I will use the number 50 as a more conservative number and to compensate for any error due to variance from year to year. I have excluded car accidents, since they are very difficult to use as a "murder weapon", since the driver of a "murderer's" car stands a good chance of dying too and a good chance of not even being successful at the attempt. Plus this is not a method of murder listed as measurable in any crime statistics. However, other kinds of accidents and most suicides are relatively easy to "stage", and are frequently reported as murder methods by the police.
HOW MANY PEOPLE FROM 1984 TO 1999 ARE IN BILL CLINTON'S "GROUP"?
This is a difficult question. It is desirable to include as large a number as is reasonable, to include all subpoenaed witnesses against Bill/Hillary Clinton, all government and news/press investigators, personal friends and associates and subordinates to the point they could possibly have damaging evidence against Bill Clinton or testify against him as a witness. In otherwords, if Clinton or a crony of his targeted someone for murder, who would be the people likely to be "targets" in his "group"?
Simple estimates yield, 200 investigators, 500 witnesses, 1000 White House Staff persons, 300 Arkansas Governor's staff, 300 personal friends, 100 close family members, 100 lawyer associates, 1200 Cabinet members and their close staff and assistants, 1000 lawmakers, 1000 FBI agents, 300 Arkansas State Troopers, 1000 close campaign workers, 100 Secret Service. This "generous" list equals 8100.
However, the group was not 8100 in 1984, but has ramped up between then and now. The average then is 4050.
WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT 60 DEATHS ARE NOT COINCIDENTAL, BUT COULD BE DELIBERATELY "CAUSED" BY CLINTON OR ONE OF HIS CRONIES?
The answer is solved, according to a friend of mine who knows statistics, by using the Poison Probability distribution which assumes the events are independent and randomly distributed.
Here are probabilities for 10-50, increments of 5, based on the Poison Probability Distribution and assuming 4000 in his "group".
Number of Deaths Percent Chance Approximate Odds
10 99% 1:1
15 89% 1:1
20 53% 2:1
25 15% 6:1
30 2% 50:1
35 .15% 667:1
40 .0053% 19,000:1
45 .0001% 1,000,000:1
50 .000001% 100,000,000:1
55 .00000001% 10,000,000,000:1
60 .00000000005% 2,000,000,000,000:1
"If it walks like a duck..." - now thats an awful big "duck"
Translation - it is 2,000,000,000,000 times more lethal to be an associate of Mr. Bill than to be an average person.
-MP
Just saying you know.
